Strategy overview
This is an intraday BUY-only system for NIFTY weekly options. It does not sell options to open, does not scale in, and does not re-run AI during the trade. One analysis snapshot at entry; after that, only price-based risk rules apply.
Core idea
NIFTY option buyers care whether today is likely to move enough to pay for premiums. The engine estimates upside vs downside probability from the live chain around ATM (typically ATM ±5 strikes), then applies filters so you do not buy when the market must move unrealistically far.
- Upside probability ≥ ~55% → lean CALL (if profitability checks pass)
- Upside probability ≤ ~45% → lean PUT
- Strong two-sided setup (e.g. large gap day) → BOTH straddle-style bias when rules allow
- Otherwise → NO_TRADE
Exact thresholds live in settings.json and the decision module.
What drives probability
Think of three layers:
- Base from OI walls — Where is open interest stacked near spot? Resistance/support walls are weighted by distance and fresh OI change, not raw size alone.
- Directional nudges — PCR/OI bias, VWAP, opening-range breakout, gap day flag, ATM OI change, momentum band, and optional AI sentiment each shift probability within bounded limits.
- Hard gates — Required move vs expected move (VIX + history blend), premium × margin factor, and range-tightness checks can veto a trade even when probability looks good.
Technical bias vs probability
technical_bias (BULLISH / BEARISH / NEUTRAL) is a majority vote among OI, VWAP, and ORB—it is
informational on the dashboard. The actual trade direction follows upside_probability, not that vote alone.
Expected move
“How far might NIFTY move today?” uses a blend of India VIX implied move and the recent average open-to-close range (configurable lookback). That blended range sizes profitability checks and the volatility-confidence gauge—not the final CALL/PUT label by itself.
After entry
Monitoring is deterministic: live ticks update P&L; stop-loss, target, time exit, and a fixed force exit time (default 15:15) run without another AI or REST analysis pass.
Analyze vs Execute
| Mode | Orders | Use case |
|---|---|---|
| Analyze only | None | Same pipeline as Execute; validate decision in DRY RUN or after market |
| Execute | Real or simulated (dry_run) | Enter ATM CE/PE or both legs, then monitor |
| Manual CALL/PUT/BOTH | Per your click | Skips automated analysis; same exit monitoring |